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The Great Telecom Meltdown
Fred Goldstein
ISBN 978-1-58053-939-5
Copyright 2005
Pages: 209
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In today’s telecom business environment, a thorough and accurate understanding of past mistakes goes a long way in ensuring future success. Providing you with an authoritative account of what contributed to the “Great Telecom Crash”, this insightful resource explores the roots of the perfect storm that buffeted telecom and Internet companies and investors. You get a detailed insider’s look at how the crash was caused by a complex combination of risk and regulatory factors in an increasingly competitive environment, originally fueled by the break up of AT&T.

The Great Telecom Meltdown offers you a solid understanding of the evolving structure of the information, communications and telecom industries, and how companies and sectors within these industries relate to each other. You gain insight into identifying sound long-term investment strategies and avoiding fads with unsound fundamentals. The book helps you make sense of the regulatory framework that has been evolving, as competition gradually replaces regulation among different industry sectors. Moreover, you gain an appreciation for the context of the modern telecom industry, leading up to and beyond the Telecom Act of 1996, which, as the book explains, has been given more credit and more blame for the events of the era than it deserves.

Supplementary Material

Fred Goldstein offers his expert views on industrial policy and the telecom industry

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"...appears to be the first book length study of what has happened over the past five years to the once vaunted telecommunications and information business...a well-written picture of the sad decline of a once vibrant sector. Important reading with lessons for the future-especially concerning that old human failing, plain greed.”
---Communications Booknotes Quarterly, Spring 2005

"In The Great Telecom Meltdown, author and telecommunications expert Fred R. Goldstein offers an informed and informative analysis on just what went wrong with the telecom industry when the telecom stock market bubble burst. Moreover, Goldstein offers invaluable and practical advice for keeping this economic disaster from reoccuring, and even how to profit from such an event in the future.”
---The Midwest Book Review, May 2005

"Amateur and professional historians of the telecommunications industry will find Goldstein's book an invaluable guide for years to come.”
---IEEE Spectrum, May 2005

"...the author is one of the world's most authoritative telecommunications experts. In the course of reviewing the way the telecom industry went through a major shakeout in the 1990s, he offers an analysis of what went wrong when the telecom bubble burst, how to keep it from happening again, and even how to profit from it in the future. For those who still want to invest, this book is required reading and for those who just want to understand what happened, it is as well.”
---Bookviews by Alan Caruba, April 2005

"Fred Goldstein has a unique grasp of both the technology and the business side of today's telephone industry. He gives us a clear and accessible account of the late 20th century telephone revolution, from the Bell monopoly through the dawn of competition and the 1990s telecom bubble to today's rapid consolidation.”
---John R. Levine, author of Internet Secrets and The Internet for Dummies, January 2005

Ma Bell and her “Natural Monopoly”, 1876-1969 – Natural and Unnatural Monopoly. Western Union. Patent Protection. The Kingsbury Commitment. The Slow Pace of Progress. The Smith Decision and Universal Services. The Final Judgment. Hushaphone and the First Cracks in the Monopoly. The Disruptive Transistor.

The Rebirth of Competition - Carterfone Made the Network More Valuable. Registration Opened Up the Floodgates. Digitization from the Outside In. Computer II and the Detariffing of Terminal Equipment. MCI’s Shared Microwave Opens New Doors.

Divestiture: Equal Access and Chinese Walls - The 1956 FJ vs. At&T’s Big Computer Dreams. The Money’s in Long Distance, Right? Birth of the Baby Bells.ISDN and the Slow Digitization of the RBOC Networks. Digital Switching Reaches the Local Central Office. Centrex Revival. ISDN Desktop Data, a Decade Late for the IVD Bubble. Digital Access Held Hostage for Local Measured Service.

The Internet Boom and the Limits to Growth - The ARPAnet as a Seminal Research Network. Vendor-Proprietary Corporate Data Networks. SNA and DECnet Square Off. OSI, the Big Committee that Couldn’t. NSFnet Interconnects Universities. Commercialization at Last. An Internet Industry Structure Develops. Traffic Explodes as the Public Joins. ISPs Set Pricing to Produce Permanent Losses. Gold Rush Mentality Inflates ISP Stocks. Dotcoms Create a Demand Bubble. Carrier Hotels Create Too Much Room at the Inn. The Bubble Bursts in Equipment Manufacturers’ Faces.

The Deuteronomy Networks - Early Players Found Receptive Investors. Short-Term bandwidth Crunch Invited More Suppliers. Qwest Follows Sprint’s Lead Along the Rails. Kiewit Sells MFS, Creates Level 3. Williams Sells Wiltel, Creates Wilcom. Metromedia Sells Cellular and Long-Haul, Creates MMFN. Undersea, Undersea, Under Beautiful Sea. How Much Bandwidth was Available?

Losing by Winning: Wireless and the License Auctions - Original License Lotteries Led to Farcical Resale. Cellular Networks Grew to Profitability. Auctions as a Fair Way to Allocate Scarce Spectrum. “3G” Combined the Allure of Both Internet and Wireless. Many Large Incumbents Were Left with Huge Debt.

Competition Access Providers, the Costly Way to Local Competition - RBOC Prices to Large Customers Were Out of Line. States Supported RBOC Monopolies More than the FCC. Teleport Cracks the NYNEX Monopoly. Competitors Outrace RBOCs to Provide Local Fiber Optic Connections. The Telecom Act Opens Local Service Competition. Fixed Wireless as an Alternative? HFC gave Cable Providers an Advantage on “Triple Play”.

DLECs and ELECs, an Exercise in Extreme Oversupply - DSL’s Slow Start as a Failed Video Offering. The Telecom Act Invites Novel Use of Unbundled Loops. Capital Poisoning Leads DLECs to Expand atop One Another. Survivors Face Regulatory Might of ILECs. Ethernet LECs Apply CAP Model to Datacomm.

CLECs’ Winning Strategies Are Met by Rule Changes - The Telecom Act Anticipated CAPs and Resellers. Initial Strategies for Serving “Classical” Voice Business. ISP Dial-In Business and CLECs - A Match Made in Heaven. New Generation Switching Equipment Lowers Capital Costs. An ILEC-Friendly FCC Throws Obstructions at Surviving CLECs.

Focus on the Bottom Line - Asset Valuation Is Risky. Accounting Was Scandalous. New Services Need to Fit into a Food Chain. Competitive Realities Will Change.

Fred Goldstein is currently the principal of Ionary Consulting. A highly-regarded industry professional and published author, he has provided expert testimony before several state regulatory agencies and the Federal Communications Commission, and provides direct support to law firms on matters concerning telecommunications. A senior member of IEEE, he holds three patents in the area of Asynchronous Transfer Mode technology.

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